TBATL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Simulation: Falcons win 5,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Falcons rank 3rd in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.14).
- Strength: Falcons rank 6th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.9).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Falcons -2.0.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 4,610 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 15 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · ATL n/a | TB 46% · ATL 54% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +117 · ATL -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 24, TB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 15 and ATL by 18.
Side by side
| TB | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | 2025 Wk 15 | ATL 29 @ TB 28 | ATL | TB -6 |
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | TB 23 @ ATL 20 | TB | TB -1.5 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | ATL 31 @ TB 26 | ATL | ATL -1.5 |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024 Wk 5 | TB 30 @ ATL 36 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | TB 29 @ ATL 25 | TB | ATL -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away