SEACHI
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 2.2 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Bears -3.3.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Strength: Seahawks rank 1st in explosive plays allowed per game (1.4).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 4,340 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Seahawks cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.3 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · CHI n/a | SEA 57% · CHI 43% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -130 · CHI +130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 23, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 18 and CHI by 15.
Side by side
| SEA | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-26 | 2024 Wk 17 | SEA 6 @ CHI 3 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | CHI 25 @ SEA 24 | CHI | SEA -7 |
| 2018-09-17 | 2018 Wk 2 | SEA 17 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -5 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2015 Wk 3 | CHI 0 @ SEA 26 | SEA | SEA -16.5 |
| 2012-12-02 | 2012 Wk 13 | SEA 23 @ CHI 17 | SEA | CHI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away