NYJLV
New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Jets cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Upset odds: Jets win 4,500 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 14 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Raiders 15th (6.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · LV n/a | NYJ 45% · LV 55% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +122 · LV -122 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 24, NYJ 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 14 and LV by 18.
Side by side
| NYJ | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | NYJ 12 @ LV 16 | LV | NYJ -1 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | LV 31 @ NYJ 28 | LV | LV -7.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | LV 3 @ NYJ 34 | NYJ | LV -3.5 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | NYJ 20 @ LV 45 | LV | LV -14 |
| 2015-11-01 | 2015 Wk 8 | NYJ 20 @ LV 34 | LV | NYJ -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away