MIANE
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 4.6 points stronger.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Simulation: Patriots win 7,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,060 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Patriots 20th (61.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -9.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · NE n/a | MIA 21% · NE 79% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +385 · NE -385 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 27, MIA 17.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 6 and NE by 27.
Side by side
| MIA | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | MIA 10 @ NE 38 | NE | NE -14 |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | NE 33 @ MIA 27 | NE | MIA -1.5 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | NE 15 @ MIA 34 | MIA | MIA -7.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | MIA 15 @ NE 10 | MIA | MIA -2 |
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | NE 17 @ MIA 31 | MIA | MIA -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away