DENKC
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Chiefs rank 10th (3.8), Broncos 29th (2.3).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Chiefs +0.7.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Broncos rank 9th (7.4%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · KC n/a | DEN 40% · KC 60% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +147 · KC -147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 23, DEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 14 and KC by 20.
Side by side
| DEN | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 2026 Wk 1 | DEN 10 @ KC 31 | KC | KC -2.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | 2025 Wk 17 | DEN 20 @ KC 13 | DEN | DEN -13.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | KC 19 @ DEN 22 | DEN | KC -3.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | KC 0 @ DEN 38 | DEN | DEN -10.5 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | DEN 14 @ KC 16 | KC | KC -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away