CINTEN
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 5.9 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Titans -6.7.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,110 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · TEN n/a | CIN 79% · TEN 21% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -373 · TEN +373 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 17, CIN 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 26 and TEN by 7.
Side by side
| CIN | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | CIN 37 @ TEN 27 | CIN | CIN -6 |
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | CIN 3 @ TEN 27 | TEN | CIN -2.5 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | CIN 20 @ TEN 16 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 2022-01-22 | 2021 Divisional | CIN 19 @ TEN 16 | CIN | TEN -4 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | TEN 20 @ CIN 31 | CIN | TEN -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away