BUFBAL
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.7 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Bills in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,440 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 52 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · BAL n/a | BUF 56% · BAL 44% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -125 · BAL +125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 25, BUF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 18 and BAL by 15.
Side by side
| BUF | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | BAL 40 @ BUF 41 | BUF | BAL -1.5 |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024 Divisional | BAL 25 @ BUF 27 | BUF | BAL -1.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | BUF 10 @ BAL 35 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | BUF 23 @ BAL 20 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2021-01-16 | 2020 Divisional | BAL 3 @ BUF 17 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away