TENCIN
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Paycor Stadium
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
86% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 86% pick loses about 1 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 5.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bengals win 8,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Titans -6.7.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,400 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | CIN -12.5 | CIN -12.5 |
| Total points | 46.5 | 46.5 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · CIN n/a | TEN 14% · CIN 86% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +614 · CIN -614 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 30, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 3 and CIN by 29.
- CIN cover the spread in 50% of simulations.
- The game goes over 46.5 in 48%.
Side by side
| TEN | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 4-2 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | CIN 37 @ TEN 27 | CIN | CIN -6 |
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | CIN 3 @ TEN 27 | TEN | CIN -2.5 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | CIN 20 @ TEN 16 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 2022-01-22 | 2021 Divisional | CIN 19 @ TEN 16 | CIN | TEN -4 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | TEN 20 @ CIN 31 | CIN | TEN -7.5 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works