NEMIA
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Hard Rock Stadium
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 4.7 points stronger.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Dolphins -3.0.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,610 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Division game: these teams play twice a year and know each other, which tends to tighten the margin.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 8 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NE -7 | NE -7 |
| Total points | 43 | 43 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · MIA n/a | NE 74% · MIA 26% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -283 · MIA +283 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 17, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 24 and MIA by 8.
- MIA cover the spread in 52% of simulations, push in 4%.
- The game goes over 43 in 46%.
Side by side
| NE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 1-5 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | MIA 10 @ NE 38 | NE | NE -14 |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | NE 33 @ MIA 27 | NE | MIA -1.5 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | NE 15 @ MIA 34 | MIA | MIA -7.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | MIA 15 @ NE 10 | MIA | MIA -2 |
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | NE 17 @ MIA 31 | MIA | MIA -7.5 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works