LVNYJ
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · MetLife Stadium
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Simulation: Jets win 5,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,550 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 15 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Jets 23rd (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NYJ -1.5 | NYJ -1.5 |
| Total points | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · NYJ n/a | LV 46% · NYJ 55% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +120 · NYJ -120 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 23, LV 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 15 and NYJ by 18.
- NYJ cover the spread in 51% of simulations.
- The game goes over 45.5 in 49%.
Side by side
| LV | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | NYJ 12 @ LV 16 | LV | NYJ -1 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | LV 31 @ NYJ 28 | LV | LV -7.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | LV 3 @ NYJ 34 | NYJ | LV -3.5 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | NYJ 20 @ LV 45 | LV | LV -14 |
| 2015-11-01 | 2015 Wk 8 | NYJ 20 @ LV 34 | LV | NYJ -3 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works