INDJAX
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · EverBank Stadium
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 8,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 2.7 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 1,980 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Division game: these teams play twice a year and know each other, which tends to tighten the margin.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | JAX -10 | JAX -10 |
| Total points | 46.5 | 46.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · JAX n/a | IND 20% · JAX 80% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +406 · JAX -406 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, IND 17.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 6 and JAX by 28.
- JAX cover the spread in 46% of simulations, push in 4%.
- The game goes over 46.5 in 48%.
Side by side
| IND | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | JAX 23 @ IND 17 | JAX | JAX -3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | IND 19 @ JAX 36 | JAX | IND -2.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | JAX 23 @ IND 26 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | IND 34 @ JAX 37 | JAX | JAX -3.5 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | IND 20 @ JAX 37 | JAX | JAX -4 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works