CLEPIT
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Acrisure Stadium
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 3.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Browns +0.3.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,830 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Division game: these teams play twice a year and know each other, which tends to tighten the margin.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 13 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Steelers 14th (7.0%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | PIT -3.5 | PIT -3.5 |
| Total points | 39.5 | 39.5 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · PIT n/a | CLE 38% · PIT 62% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +161 · PIT -161 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 21, CLE 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 13 and PIT by 21.
- PIT cover the spread in 49% of simulations.
- The game goes over 39.5 in 48%.
Side by side
| CLE | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 2026 Wk 4 | PIT 24 @ CLE 27 | CLE | PIT -2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | PIT 6 @ CLE 13 | CLE | PIT -4.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | CLE 9 @ PIT 23 | PIT | PIT -5.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | CLE 14 @ PIT 27 | PIT | PIT -6 |
| 2024-11-21 | 2024 Wk 12 | PIT 19 @ CLE 24 | CLE | PIT -3.5 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works