CHISEA
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Lumen Field
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Bears -3.3.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Bears cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 4,100 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Quarterback change: Seahawks are starting a different quarterback than usual.
- Rest: Bears have 11 days since their last game, Seahawks 8.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SEA -3 | SEA -3 |
| Total points | 46.5 | 46.5 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · SEA n/a | CHI 41% · SEA 59% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +144 · SEA -144 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 24, CHI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 13 and SEA by 20.
- SEA cover the spread in 45% of simulations, push in 7%.
- The game goes over 46.5 in 49%.
Side by side
| CHI | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-26 | 2024 Wk 17 | SEA 6 @ CHI 3 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | CHI 25 @ SEA 24 | CHI | SEA -7 |
| 2018-09-17 | 2018 Wk 2 | SEA 17 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -5 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2015 Wk 3 | CHI 0 @ SEA 26 | SEA | SEA -16.5 |
| 2012-12-02 | 2012 Wk 13 | SEA 23 @ CHI 17 | SEA | CHI -3 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works