ATLTB
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Raymond James Stadium
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Falcons -2.0.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 4,190 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Quarterback change: Buccaneers are starting a different quarterback than usual.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Division game: these teams play twice a year and know each other, which tends to tighten the margin.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TB -2.5 | TB -2.5 |
| Total points | 43.5 | 43.5 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · TB n/a | ATL 42% · TB 58% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +139 · TB -139 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 23, ATL 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 13 and TB by 19.
- TB cover the spread in 52% of simulations.
- The game goes over 43.5 in 48%.
Side by side
| ATL | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | 2025 Wk 15 | ATL 29 @ TB 28 | ATL | TB -6 |
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | TB 23 @ ATL 20 | TB | TB -1.5 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | ATL 31 @ TB 26 | ATL | ATL -1.5 |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024 Wk 5 | TB 30 @ ATL 36 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | TB 29 @ ATL 25 | TB | ATL -1.5 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works