ARIDAL
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · AT&T Stadium
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 4.1 points stronger.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Cowboys in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys -0.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 7,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,850 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Cardinals passing game (23rd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 9 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DAL -7 | DAL -7 |
| Total points | 54.5 | 54.5 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · DAL n/a | ARI 28% · DAL 72% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +251 · DAL -251 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 30, ARI 24.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 9 and DAL by 24.
- DAL cover the spread in 44% of simulations, push in 4%.
- The game goes over 54.5 in 48%.
Side by side
| ARI | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | 2025 Wk 9 | ARI 27 @ DAL 17 | ARI | DAL -3.5 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | DAL 16 @ ARI 28 | ARI | DAL -11.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | ARI 25 @ DAL 22 | ARI | DAL -6.5 |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 Wk 6 | ARI 38 @ DAL 10 | ARI | DAL -1 |
| 2017-09-25 | 2017 Wk 3 | DAL 28 @ ARI 17 | DAL | DAL -3 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works