LT
USA
Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Our pick
LTLouisiana Tech Bulldogs
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Louisiana Tech can win
- Elo rating: worth about 4.1 points to Louisiana Tech in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Louisiana Tech +17.0, South Alabama +5.7.
- Louisiana Tech's passing game (7.5 yards, 49th in FBS) faces the South Alabama defense, which ranks 98th against it.
- Point differential per game: Louisiana Tech rank 41st (+11.3), South Alabama 81st (+2.7) of 138 FBS teams.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Louisiana Tech rank 17th (8.8%), South Alabama 114th (4.2%) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Louisiana Tech may not
- South Alabama's passing game (9.4 yards, 6th in FBS) faces the Louisiana Tech defense, which ranks 70th against it.
- Upset odds: South Alabama win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: South Alabama play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: South Alabama rank 22nd (3.1%), Louisiana Tech 99th (6.8%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Louisiana Tech lose by 20 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LT -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.2 |
| Win chance | LT n/a · USA n/a | LT 51% · USA 49% |
| Fair moneyline | LT -104 · USA +104 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: South Alabama 26, Louisiana Tech 27.
- 80% of simulations land between Louisiana Tech by 21 and South Alabama by 20.
Side by side
| LT | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 32.3 46 | Points per game | 35.1 33 |
| 21.0 44 | Points allowed | 32.4 123 |
| 6.2 68 | Yards per play | 6.6 40 |
| 5.4 43 | Yards per play allowed | 6.8 118 |
| +1.0 3 | Interception margin/game | +0.8 11 |
| 8.8% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 114 |
| 1450 78 | Elo rating | 1354 100 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-24 | 2022 Wk 4 | Louisiana Tech 14 @ South Alabama 38 | USA |
| 2018-09-01 | 2018 Wk 1 | Louisiana Tech 30 @ South Alabama 26 | LT |
| 2017-09-30 | 2017 Wk 5 | South Alabama 16 @ Louisiana Tech 34 | LT |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.