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AZMango
USM

Southern Miss @ UL Monroe

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Malone Stadium

ULM
Our pick
USMSouthern Miss Golden Eagles
60% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Southern Miss can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 6.3 points to Southern Miss in our ratings.
  2. Simulation: Southern Miss win 5,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
  3. Southern Miss's running game (5.4 yards, 55th in FBS) faces the UL Monroe defense, which ranks 120th against it.
  4. Plays of 20+ yards per game: Southern Miss rank 35th (5.1), UL Monroe 132nd (2.6) of 138 FBS teams.
  5. Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Southern Miss rank 27th (8.0%), UL Monroe 80th (5.4%) of 138 FBS teams.

Disadvantages Why Southern Miss may not

  1. Home field: UL Monroe play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
  2. Upset odds: UL Monroe win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Southern Miss lose by 17 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Southern Miss rank 137th of 138 in field goal percentage (25.0%).
  5. Weak spot: Southern Miss rank 123rd of 138 in points allowed per game (32.4).

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUSM -3.5
Total pointsn/a52.8
Win chanceUSM n/a · ULM n/aUSM 60% · ULM 40%
Fair moneylineUSM -148 · ULM +148

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: UL Monroe 24, Southern Miss 28.
  • 80% of simulations land between Southern Miss by 24 and UL Monroe by 17.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

USMULM
2-5Record1-6
25.7 91Points per game20.1 120
32.4 123Points allowed37.3 134
6.3 62Yards per play6.0 85
6.0 80Yards per play allowed6.1 86
-0.6 120Interception margin/game-0.4 110
8.0% 27Sacks per dropback5.4% 80
1197 122Elo rating1036 133

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 5 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2025-10-252025 Wk 9UL Monroe 21 @ Southern Miss 49USM
2024-10-122024 Wk 7Southern Miss 21 @ UL Monroe 38ULM
2023-11-042023 Wk 10UL Monroe 7 @ Southern Miss 24USM
2022-11-262022 Wk 13Southern Miss 20 @ UL Monroe 10USM
2018-09-082018 Wk 2UL Monroe 21 @ Southern Miss 20ULM

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)