KENN
MTSU
Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Kicked off. The numbers below are from before the game.
Our pick
MTSUMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Middle Tennessee can win
- Home field: Middle Tennessee play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Middle Tennessee's running game (6.6 yards, 5th in FBS) faces the Kennesaw State defense, which ranks 82nd against it.
- Middle Tennessee's passing game (7.9 yards, 40th in FBS) faces the Kennesaw State defense, which ranks 90th against it.
- Offense, yards per play: Middle Tennessee rank 11th (7.5), Kennesaw State 109th (5.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Simulation: Middle Tennessee win 5,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Middle Tennessee may not
- Elo rating: worth about 4.0 points to Kennesaw State in our ratings.
- Upset odds: Kennesaw State win 4,400 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Middle Tennessee lose by 17 or more.
- Weak spot: Middle Tennessee rank 124th of 138 in Elo rating (1172).
- Weak spot: Middle Tennessee rank 112th of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MTSU -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 50 |
| Win chance | KENN n/a · MTSU n/a | KENN 44% · MTSU 56% |
| Fair moneyline | KENN +127 · MTSU -127 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Middle Tennessee 26, Kennesaw State 24.
- 80% of simulations land between Kennesaw State by 17 and Middle Tennessee by 23.
Side by side
| KENN | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.0 124 | Points per game | 23.3 103 |
| 25.0 77 | Points allowed | 27.6 100 |
| 5.6 109 | Yards per play | 7.5 11 |
| 6.2 90 | Yards per play allowed | 5.6 58 |
| -0.4 110 | Interception margin/game | +0.5 24 |
| 2.8% 132 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 112 |
| 1264 113 | Elo rating | 1172 124 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | 2025 Wk 5 | Middle Tennessee 16 @ Kennesaw State 24 | KENN |
| 2024-10-16 | 2024 Wk 8 | Kennesaw State 5 @ Middle Tennessee 14 | MTSU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.