TROY
JMU
Troy @ James Madison
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Bridgeforth Stadium
Kicked off. The numbers below are from before the game.
Our pick
JMUJames Madison Dukes
94% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why James Madison can win
- Elo rating: worth about 16.5 points to James Madison in our ratings.
- Simulation: James Madison win 9,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: James Madison rank 7th (+23.1), Troy 100th (-2.0) of 138 FBS teams.
- Elo rating: James Madison rank 14th (1817), Troy 105th (1314) of 138 FBS teams.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, James Madison +9.0, Troy -4.3.
Disadvantages Why James Madison may not
- Upset odds: Troy win 570 of 10,000 simulations (6%). A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
- Availability: college football has no league-wide injury report. The ACC and Big 12 post availability reports about 2 hours before kickoff; other conferences may not.
- Small samples: teams play only 12 regular-season games, against very different schedules.
- Motivation and depth: rivalry weeks, bowl opt-outs and transfers move college lines in ways stats miss.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JMU -23 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.7 |
| Win chance | TROY n/a · JMU n/a | TROY 6% · JMU 94% |
| Fair moneyline | TROY +1642 · JMU -1642 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: James Madison 36, Troy 10.
- 80% of simulations land between James Madison by 3 and James Madison by 44.
Side by side
| TROY | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 7-1 |
| 22.9 105 | Points per game | 41.4 5 |
| 24.9 76 | Points allowed | 18.2 25 |
| 6.0 83 | Yards per play | 6.6 38 |
| 5.3 41 | Yards per play allowed | 5.6 55 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | +0.5 24 |
| 4.0% 116 | Sacks per dropback | 6.9% 48 |
| 1314 105 | Elo rating | 1817 14 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | 2025 Wk 15 | Troy 14 @ James Madison 31 | JMU |
| 2023-09-16 | 2023 Wk 3 | James Madison 16 @ Troy 14 | JMU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.