CCU
GAST
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Center Parc Stadium
Our pick
GASTGeorgia State Panthers
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Georgia State can win
- Simulation: Georgia State win 6,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Georgia State's running game (5.9 yards, 28th in FBS) faces the Coastal Carolina defense, which ranks 126th against it.
- Home field: Georgia State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Georgia State's passing game (7.1 yards, 77th in FBS) faces the Coastal Carolina defense, which ranks 130th against it.
- Elo rating: worth about 2.3 points to Georgia State in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Georgia State may not
- Upset odds: Coastal Carolina win 3,060 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Coastal Carolina's running game (5.3 yards, 66th in FBS) faces the Georgia State defense, which ranks 109th against it.
- Interception margin per game: Coastal Carolina rank 85th (-0.1), Georgia State 134th (-0.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Georgia State lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Georgia State rank 134th of 138 in interception margin per game (-0.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GAST -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 54.4 |
| Win chance | CCU n/a · GAST n/a | CCU 31% · GAST 69% |
| Fair moneyline | CCU +227 · GAST -227 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Georgia State 31, Coastal Carolina 23.
- 80% of simulations land between Coastal Carolina by 11 and Georgia State by 28.
Side by side
| CCU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 26.1 89 | Points per game | 35.9 27 |
| 25.9 89 | Points allowed | 26.0 91 |
| 6.1 76 | Yards per play | 6.5 48 |
| 7.2 130 | Yards per play allowed | 6.5 108 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | -0.9 134 |
| 8.3% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 9.8% 9 |
| 1277 110 | Elo rating | 1366 95 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025 Wk 11 | Georgia State 27 @ Coastal Carolina 40 | CCU |
| 2024-11-30 | 2024 Wk 14 | Coastal Carolina 48 @ Georgia State 27 | CCU |
| 2023-09-21 | 2023 Wk 4 | Georgia State 30 @ Coastal Carolina 17 | GAST |
| 2022-09-22 | 2022 Wk 4 | Coastal Carolina 41 @ Georgia State 24 | CCU |
| 2021-11-13 | 2021 Wk 11 | Georgia State 42 @ Coastal Carolina 40 | GAST |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.