BGSU
WMU
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Waldo Stadium
Our pick
WMUWestern Michigan Broncos
86% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Western Michigan can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.8 points to Western Michigan in our ratings.
- Simulation: Western Michigan win 8,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.4 points to Western Michigan in our ratings.
- Western Michigan's passing game (8.1 yards, 34th in FBS) faces the Bowling Green defense, which ranks 102nd against it.
- Point differential per game: Western Michigan rank 65th (+6.2), Bowling Green 128th (-11.0) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Western Michigan may not
- Upset odds: Bowling Green win 1,440 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Western Michigan lose by 3 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Bowling Green rank 36th (4.1%), Western Michigan 94th (6.6%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Western Michigan rank 111th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (3.4).
- Weak spot: Western Michigan rank 94th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WMU -15.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.5 |
| Win chance | BGSU n/a · WMU n/a | BGSU 14% · WMU 86% |
| Fair moneyline | BGSU +594 · WMU -594 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Western Michigan 30, Bowling Green 14.
- 80% of simulations land between Bowling Green by 3 and Western Michigan by 35.
Side by side
| BGSU | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 5-3 |
| 18.8 131 | Points per game | 26.6 83 |
| 29.8 109 | Points allowed | 20.4 35 |
| 5.3 126 | Yards per play | 6.2 69 |
| 7.1 126 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 36 |
| -0.6 120 | Interception margin/game | +0.1 68 |
| 7.1% 43 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 57 |
| 1231 119 | Elo rating | 1480 71 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-13 | 2024 Wk 12 | Western Michigan 13 @ Bowling Green 31 | BGSU |
| 2023-11-22 | 2023 Wk 13 | Bowling Green 34 @ Western Michigan 10 | BGSU |
| 2022-11-02 | 2022 Wk 10 | Western Michigan 9 @ Bowling Green 13 | BGSU |
| 2019-10-26 | 2019 Wk 9 | Bowling Green 10 @ Western Michigan 49 | WMU |
| 2018-10-13 | 2018 Wk 7 | Western Michigan 42 @ Bowling Green 35 | WMU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.