KENT
SAC
Kent State @ Sacramento State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Hornet Stadium
Our pick
SACSacramento State Hornets
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Sacramento State can win
- Simulation: Sacramento State win 6,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Sacramento State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.0 points to Sacramento State in our ratings.
- Travel: Kent State come about 3,406 km (2,115 miles) for this one.
- Sacramento State's passing game (6.5 yards, 101st in FBS) faces the Kent State defense, which ranks 134th against it.
Disadvantages Why Sacramento State may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Kent State -14.3, Sacramento State -28.7.
- Elo rating: worth about 2.2 points to Kent State in our ratings.
- Upset odds: Kent State win 3,340 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Kent State rank 59th (6.6%), Sacramento State 138th (1.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Sacramento State lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAC -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.8 |
| Win chance | KENT n/a · SAC n/a | KENT 33% · SAC 67% |
| Fair moneyline | KENT +199 · SAC -199 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Sacramento State 27, Kent State 21.
- 80% of simulations land between Kent State by 13 and Sacramento State by 27.
Side by side
| KENT | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 1-7 |
| 14.9 137 | Points per game | 15.2 134 |
| 30.5 115 | Points allowed | 32.9 126 |
| 4.8 137 | Yards per play | 5.6 114 |
| 7.2 129 | Yards per play allowed | 6.1 85 |
| -0.7 130 | Interception margin/game | -0.3 106 |
| 6.6% 59 | Sacks per dropback | 1.5% 138 |
| 1026 134 | Elo rating | 986 137 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.