NIU
UNLV
Northern Illinois @ UNLV
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Allegiant Stadium
Our pick
UNLVUNLV Rebels
95% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why UNLV can win
- Elo rating: worth about 13.8 points to UNLV in our ratings.
- Simulation: UNLV win 9,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, UNLV +1.3, Northern Illinois -24.7.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.5 points to UNLV in our ratings.
- Home field: UNLV play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
Disadvantages Why UNLV may not
- Upset odds: Northern Illinois win 530 of 10,000 simulations (5%). A 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Northern Illinois's running game (4.8 yards, 96th in FBS) faces the UNLV defense, which ranks 122nd against it.
- Weak spot: UNLV rank 133rd of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (11.0%).
- Weak spot: UNLV rank 128th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (5.2).
- Weak spot: UNLV rank 122nd of 138 in run defense, yards per carry allowed (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UNLV -23.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.2 |
| Win chance | NIU n/a · UNLV n/a | NIU 5% · UNLV 95% |
| Fair moneyline | NIU +1776 · UNLV -1776 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: UNLV 37, Northern Illinois 13.
- 80% of simulations land between UNLV by 3 and UNLV by 45.
Side by side
| NIU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-7 | Record | 4-3 |
| 15.1 135 | Points per game | 24.1 100 |
| 38.6 136 | Points allowed | 23.7 64 |
| 5.6 113 | Yards per play | 6.4 58 |
| 6.5 110 | Yards per play allowed | 5.6 60 |
| +0.1 56 | Interception margin/game | +0.5 24 |
| 3.9% 119 | Sacks per dropback | 4.9% 97 |
| 1065 132 | Elo rating | 1489 69 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-05 | 2015 Wk 1 | UNLV 30 @ Northern Illinois 38 | NIU |
| 2014-09-13 | 2014 Wk 3 | Northern Illinois 48 @ UNLV 34 | NIU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.