TEM
ECU
Temple @ East Carolina
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Our pick
ECUEast Carolina Pirates
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why East Carolina can win
- Elo rating: worth about 3.8 points to East Carolina in our ratings.
- Simulation: East Carolina win 6,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: East Carolina play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: East Carolina rank 8th (10.1%), Temple 111th (4.3%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: East Carolina rank 71st (5.3%), Temple 120th (8.6%) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why East Carolina may not
- Temple's passing game (8.6 yards, 20th in FBS) faces the East Carolina defense, which ranks 81st against it.
- Offense, yards per play: Temple rank 17th (7.2), East Carolina 118th (5.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Upset odds: Temple win 3,260 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Interception margin per game: Temple rank 53rd (+0.2), East Carolina 100th (-0.2) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, East Carolina lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ECU -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 53 |
| Win chance | TEM n/a · ECU n/a | TEM 33% · ECU 67% |
| Fair moneyline | TEM +207 · ECU -207 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: East Carolina 30, Temple 23.
- 80% of simulations land between Temple by 13 and East Carolina by 27.
Side by side
| TEM | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 25.7 91 | Points per game | 25.0 94 |
| 28.0 104 | Points allowed | 26.3 93 |
| 7.2 17 | Yards per play | 5.5 118 |
| 6.4 104 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 39 |
| +0.2 53 | Interception margin/game | -0.2 100 |
| 4.3% 111 | Sacks per dropback | 10.1% 8 |
| 1298 108 | Elo rating | 1433 83 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | 2025 Wk 10 | East Carolina 45 @ Temple 14 | ECU |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Wk 9 | Temple 34 @ East Carolina 56 | ECU |
| 2022-11-26 | 2022 Wk 13 | East Carolina 49 @ Temple 46 | ECU |
| 2021-11-06 | 2021 Wk 10 | Temple 3 @ East Carolina 45 | ECU |
| 2020-11-21 | 2020 Wk 12 | East Carolina 28 @ Temple 3 | ECU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.