ARMY
MEM
Army @ Memphis
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Our pick
MEMMemphis Tigers
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Memphis can win
- Memphis's passing game (8.9 yards, 14th in FBS) faces the Army defense, which ranks 126th against it.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 4.0 points to Memphis in our ratings.
- Simulation: Memphis win 7,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Memphis's running game (6.2 yards, 13th in FBS) faces the Army defense, which ranks 127th against it.
- Home field: Memphis play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
Disadvantages Why Memphis may not
- Army's running game (6.8 yards, 3rd in FBS) faces the Memphis defense, which ranks 121st against it.
- Upset odds: Army win 2,480 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Army rank 8th (2.2%), Memphis 85th (5.9%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Memphis lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Memphis rank 121st of 138 in run defense, yards per carry allowed (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -10.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.4 |
| Win chance | ARMY n/a · MEM n/a | ARMY 25% · MEM 75% |
| Fair moneyline | ARMY +304 · MEM -304 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Memphis 31, Army 21.
- 80% of simulations land between Army by 9 and Memphis by 31.
Side by side
| ARMY | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 35.3 32 | Points per game | 36.1 23 |
| 22.1 54 | Points allowed | 23.8 66 |
| 6.2 65 | Yards per play | 7.4 12 |
| 7.4 136 | Yards per play allowed | 6.4 106 |
| +0.3 43 | Interception margin/game | +0.4 38 |
| 5.1% 90 | Sacks per dropback | 8.1% 26 |
| 1571 56 | Elo rating | 1622 43 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.