FAU
UNT
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · DATCU Stadium
Kicked off. The numbers below are from before the game.
Our pick
UNTNorth Texas Mean Green
95% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why North Texas can win
- Elo rating: worth about 14.2 points to North Texas in our ratings.
- Simulation: North Texas win 9,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 4.7 points to North Texas in our ratings.
- North Texas's passing game (9.3 yards, 8th in FBS) faces the Florida Atlantic defense, which ranks 115th against it.
- North Texas's running game (5.7 yards, 36th in FBS) faces the Florida Atlantic defense, which ranks 137th against it.
Disadvantages Why North Texas may not
- Florida Atlantic's passing game (7.5 yards, 50th in FBS) faces the North Texas defense, which ranks 117th against it.
- Upset odds: Florida Atlantic win 530 of 10,000 simulations (5%). A 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Weak spot: North Texas rank 117th of 138 in pass defense, yards per dropback allowed (8.2).
- Weak spot: North Texas rank 116th of 138 in points allowed per game (30.6).
- Weak spot: North Texas rank 98th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (4.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UNT -24.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 65.6 |
| Win chance | FAU n/a · UNT n/a | FAU 5% · UNT 95% |
| Fair moneyline | FAU +1776 · UNT -1776 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: North Texas 45, Florida Atlantic 20.
- 80% of simulations land between North Texas by 3 and North Texas by 46.
Side by side
| FAU | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 37.3 17 | Points per game | 43.1 2 |
| 34.0 129 | Points allowed | 30.6 116 |
| 6.1 75 | Yards per play | 7.6 7 |
| 7.4 135 | Yards per play allowed | 6.2 88 |
| +0.3 44 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 71 |
| 5.6% 75 | Sacks per dropback | 6.9% 50 |
| 1239 117 | Elo rating | 1675 36 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | 2024 Wk 7 | North Texas 41 @ Florida Atlantic 37 | UNT |
| 2022-10-01 | 2022 Wk 5 | Florida Atlantic 28 @ North Texas 45 | UNT |
| 2018-11-16 | 2018 Wk 12 | Florida Atlantic 38 @ North Texas 41 | UNT |
| 2017-12-02 | 2017 Wk 14 | North Texas 17 @ Florida Atlantic 41 | FAU |
| 2017-10-21 | 2017 Wk 8 | North Texas 31 @ Florida Atlantic 69 | FAU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.