CONN
AF
UConn @ Air Force
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Falcon Stadium
Our pick
CONNUConn Huskies
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why UConn can win
- UConn's passing game (9.1 yards, 12th in FBS) faces the Air Force defense, which ranks 114th against it.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 4.2 points to UConn in our ratings.
- UConn's running game (6.4 yards, 8th in FBS) faces the Air Force defense, which ranks 98th against it.
- Offense, yards per play: UConn rank 8th (7.6), Air Force 127th (5.3) of 138 FBS teams.
- Elo rating: worth about 2.6 points to UConn in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why UConn may not
- Upset odds: Air Force win 4,860 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Air Force play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: UConn come about 2,731 km (1,696 miles) for this one.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Air Force rank 63rd (6.3%), UConn 125th (3.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Air Force rank 59th (4.9%), UConn 129th (10.2%) of 138 FBS teams.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CONN -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 54.7 |
| Win chance | CONN n/a · AF n/a | CONN 51% · AF 49% |
| Fair moneyline | CONN -106 · AF +106 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Air Force 27, UConn 27.
- 80% of simulations land between UConn by 21 and Air Force by 20.
Side by side
| CONN | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 35.6 29 | Points per game | 28.4 70 |
| 23.9 67 | Points allowed | 20.9 40 |
| 7.6 8 | Yards per play | 5.3 127 |
| 5.6 57 | Yards per play allowed | 6.5 109 |
| +0.1 56 | Interception margin/game | +0.1 56 |
| 3.5% 125 | Sacks per dropback | 6.3% 63 |
| 1493 67 | Elo rating | 1441 81 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | 2025 Wk 12 | Air Force 16 @ UConn 26 | CONN |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.