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AZMango
ORST

Oregon State @ Fresno State

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Valley Children's Stadium

FRES
Our pick
FRESFresno State Bulldogs
56% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Fresno State can win

  1. Home field: Fresno State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
  2. Simulation: Fresno State win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
  3. Fresno State's running game (5.3 yards, 68th in FBS) faces the Oregon State defense, which ranks 99th against it.
  4. Strength: Fresno State rank 7th of 138 in interception margin per game (+0.9).
  5. Strength: Fresno State rank 12th of 138 in field goal percentage (92.9%).

Disadvantages Why Fresno State may not

  1. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Oregon State +33.3, Fresno State +3.3.
  2. Oregon State's passing game (8.7 yards, 17th in FBS) faces the Fresno State defense, which ranks 97th against it.
  3. Upset odds: Oregon State win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
  4. Point differential per game: Oregon State rank 11th (+19.6), Fresno State 63rd (+6.7) of 138 FBS teams.
  5. Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.9 points to Oregon State in our ratings.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetFRES -2.1
Total pointsn/a50.2
Win chanceORST n/a · FRES n/aORST 44% · FRES 56%
Fair moneylineORST +128 · FRES -128

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: Fresno State 26.5, Oregon State 24.
  • 80% of simulations land between Oregon State by 18 and Fresno State by 22.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

ORSTFRES
5-2Record4-3
42.7 4Points per game27.6 78
23.1 61Points allowed20.9 40
7.4 13Yards per play5.9 89
5.8 74Yards per play allowed6.4 105
+0.6 19Interception margin/game+0.9 7
8.0% 30Sacks per dropback6.6% 58
1611 47Elo rating1628 42

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 2 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2025-09-062025 Wk 2Fresno State 36 @ Oregon State 27FRES
2022-09-112022 Wk 2Oregon State 35 @ Fresno State 32ORST

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)