WSU
SDSU
Washington State @ San Diego State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Snapdragon Stadium
Our pick
WSUWashington State Cougars
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Washington State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 6.8 points to Washington State in our ratings.
- Simulation: Washington State win 5,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Elo rating: Washington State rank 87th (1419), San Diego State 116th (1245) of 138 FBS teams.
- Strength: Washington State rank 30th of 138 in pass defense, yards per dropback allowed (5.7).
- Relative strength: Washington State rank 65th of 138 in defense, yards per play allowed (5.7).
Disadvantages Why Washington State may not
- Upset odds: San Diego State win 4,600 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: San Diego State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: Washington State come about 1,551 km (963 miles) for this one.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: San Diego State rank 58th (4.9%), Washington State 130th (10.4%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Washington State lose by 18 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WSU -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.1 |
| Win chance | WSU n/a · SDSU n/a | WSU 54% · SDSU 46% |
| Fair moneyline | WSU -117 · SDSU +117 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: San Diego State 23, Washington State 24.
- 80% of simulations land between Washington State by 21 and San Diego State by 18.
Side by side
| WSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 3-5 |
| 18.9 130 | Points per game | 26.5 86 |
| 27.6 101 | Points allowed | 36.1 133 |
| 5.6 111 | Yards per play | 5.7 103 |
| 5.7 65 | Yards per play allowed | 6.0 81 |
| -0.6 129 | Interception margin/game | -0.4 109 |
| 2.6% 134 | Sacks per dropback | 5.3% 86 |
| 1419 87 | Elo rating | 1245 116 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 2 | San Diego State 13 @ Washington State 36 | WSU |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 9 | Washington State 29 @ San Diego State 26 | WSU |
| 2011-09-17 | 2011 Wk 3 | Washington State 24 @ San Diego State 42 | SDSU |
| 2007-09-08 | 2007 Wk 2 | San Diego State 17 @ Washington State 45 | WSU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.