TXST
BOIS
Texas State @ Boise State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Albertsons Stadium
Our pick
BOISBoise State Broncos
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Boise State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 4.5 points to Boise State in our ratings.
- Simulation: Boise State win 7,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Boise State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Boise State rank 13th (9.0%), Texas State 135th (2.3%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Travel: Texas State come about 2,221 km (1,379 miles) for this one.
Disadvantages Why Boise State may not
- Texas State's passing game (8.3 yards, 26th in FBS) faces the Boise State defense, which ranks 132nd against it.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.7 points to Texas State in our ratings.
- Texas State's running game (6.2 yards, 12th in FBS) faces the Boise State defense, which ranks 86th against it.
- Upset odds: Texas State win 2,990 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Texas State rank 12th (5.9), Boise State 77th (4.1) of 138 FBS teams.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOIS -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 57.2 |
| Win chance | TXST n/a · BOIS n/a | TXST 30% · BOIS 70% |
| Fair moneyline | TXST +234 · BOIS -234 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Boise State 32, Texas State 24.
- 80% of simulations land between Texas State by 11 and Boise State by 28.
Side by side
| TXST | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 6-1 |
| 37.1 18 | Points per game | 34.4 36 |
| 30.0 111 | Points allowed | 20.6 38 |
| 7.1 21 | Yards per play | 6.1 73 |
| 5.6 62 | Yards per play allowed | 7.3 133 |
| +0.0 71 | Interception margin/game | +0.9 7 |
| 2.3% 135 | Sacks per dropback | 9.0% 13 |
| 1565 57 | Elo rating | 1718 28 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.