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AZMango
NEV

Nevada @ UCLA

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Rose Bowl

UCLA
Our pick
UCLAUCLA Bruins
87% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why UCLA can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 8.2 points to UCLA in our ratings.
  2. Simulation: UCLA win 8,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
  3. Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.6 points to UCLA in our ratings.
  4. Interception margin per game: UCLA rank 15th (+0.7), Nevada 136th (-1.0) of 138 FBS teams.
  5. Point differential per game: UCLA rank 13th (+19.1), Nevada 73rd (+4.3) of 138 FBS teams.

Disadvantages Why UCLA may not

  1. Upset odds: Nevada win 1,330 of 10,000 simulations (13%). A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, UCLA lose by 3 or more.
  3. Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Nevada rank 20th (8.4%), UCLA 64th (6.3%) of 138 FBS teams.
  4. Field goal percentage: Nevada rank 18th (90.9%), UCLA 67th (75.0%) of 138 FBS teams.
  5. Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUCLA -16.2
Total pointsn/a49.1
Win chanceNEV n/a · UCLA n/aNEV 13% · UCLA 87%
Fair moneylineNEV +651 · UCLA -651

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: UCLA 31.5, Nevada 14.
  • 80% of simulations land between Nevada by 3 and UCLA by 37.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

NEVUCLA
3-4Record7-0
26.3 88Points per game34.4 36
22.0 53Points allowed15.3 11
5.6 110Yards per play7.1 19
5.3 31Yards per play allowed4.3 2
-1.0 136Interception margin/game+0.7 15
8.4% 20Sacks per dropback6.3% 64
1448 79Elo rating1709 30

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 1 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2013-09-012013 Wk 1Nevada 20 @ UCLA 58UCLA

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)