MICH
RUTG
Michigan @ Rutgers
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · SHI Stadium
Our pick
MICHMichigan Wolverines
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Michigan can win
- Elo rating: worth about 13.8 points to Michigan in our ratings.
- Simulation: Michigan win 7,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Michigan -3.3, Rutgers -17.7.
- Elo rating: Michigan rank 25th (1734), Rutgers 100th (1354) of 138 FBS teams.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.0 points to Michigan in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Michigan may not
- Home field: Rutgers play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Offense, yards per play: Rutgers rank 36th (6.7), Michigan 128th (5.2) of 138 FBS teams.
- Upset odds: Rutgers win 2,050 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Rutgers rank 70th (4.3), Michigan 132nd (2.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Michigan lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MICH -12.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.2 |
| Win chance | MICH n/a · RUTG n/a | MICH 80% · RUTG 20% |
| Fair moneyline | MICH -389 · RUTG +389 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Rutgers 17, Michigan 31.
- 80% of simulations land between Michigan by 32 and Rutgers by 7.
Side by side
| MICH | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.3 118 | Points per game | 28.7 68 |
| 15.7 15 | Points allowed | 33.3 127 |
| 5.2 128 | Yards per play | 6.7 36 |
| 4.5 4 | Yards per play allowed | 6.7 117 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | -0.9 134 |
| 7.6% 35 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 110 |
| 1734 25 | Elo rating | 1354 100 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-23 | 2023 Wk 4 | Rutgers 7 @ Michigan 31 | MICH |
| 2022-11-05 | 2022 Wk 10 | Michigan 52 @ Rutgers 17 | MICH |
| 2021-09-25 | 2021 Wk 4 | Rutgers 13 @ Michigan 20 | MICH |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 12 | Michigan 48 @ Rutgers 42 | MICH |
| 2019-09-28 | 2019 Wk 5 | Rutgers 0 @ Michigan 52 | MICH |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.