21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango
PUR

Purdue @ Penn State

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Beaver Stadium

PSU
Our pick
PSUPenn State Nittany Lions
88% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Penn State can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 12.2 points to Penn State in our ratings.
  2. Simulation: Penn State win 8,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
  3. Elo rating: Penn State rank 16th (1800), Purdue 86th (1423) of 138 FBS teams.
  4. Home field: Penn State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
  5. Point differential per game: Penn State rank 47th (+9.9), Purdue 97th (-1.0) of 138 FBS teams.

Disadvantages Why Penn State may not

  1. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Purdue +7.7, Penn State -10.7.
  2. Upset odds: Purdue win 1,190 of 10,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
  3. Offense, yards per play: Purdue rank 59th (6.3), Penn State 106th (5.6) of 138 FBS teams.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Penn State lose by 2 or more.
  5. Weak spot: Penn State rank 132nd of 138 in running game, yards per carry (4.0).

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetPSU -17.7
Total pointsn/a52.1
Win chancePUR n/a · PSU n/aPUR 12% · PSU 88%
Fair moneylinePUR +743 · PSU -743

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: Penn State 34, Purdue 16.
  • 80% of simulations land between Purdue by 2 and Penn State by 38.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

PURPSU
3-4Record3-4
31.3 53Points per game28.7 68
32.3 122Points allowed18.9 27
6.3 59Yards per play5.6 106
6.9 119Yards per play allowed5.9 78
+0.6 19Interception margin/game+0.2 53
3.6% 124Sacks per dropback3.8% 122
1423 86Elo rating1800 16

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 5 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2024-11-162024 Wk 12Penn State 49 @ Purdue 10PSU
2022-09-022022 Wk 1Penn State 35 @ Purdue 31PSU
2019-10-052019 Wk 6Purdue 7 @ Penn State 35PSU
2016-10-292016 Wk 9Penn State 62 @ Purdue 24PSU
2013-11-162013 Wk 12Purdue 21 @ Penn State 45PSU

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)