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AZMango
NU

Northwestern @ Oregon

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Autzen Stadium

ORE
Our pick
OREOregon Ducks
67% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Oregon can win

  1. Simulation: Oregon win 6,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
  2. Home field: Oregon play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
  3. Travel: Northwestern come about 2,862 km (1,777 miles) for this one.
  4. Body clock: Northwestern cross 2 time zones.
  5. Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Oregon rank 39th (4.2%), Northwestern 95th (6.6%) of 138 FBS teams.

Disadvantages Why Oregon may not

  1. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Northwestern +20.7, Oregon -3.3.
  2. Upset odds: Northwestern win 3,280 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
  3. Northwestern's running game (6.2 yards, 15th in FBS) faces the Oregon defense, which ranks 74th against it.
  4. Offense, yards per play: Northwestern rank 18th (7.1), Oregon 91st (5.9) of 138 FBS teams.
  5. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Oregon lose by 13 or more.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetORE -6.9
Total pointsn/a48.1
Win chanceNU n/a · ORE n/aNU 33% · ORE 67%
Fair moneylineNU +205 · ORE -205

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: Oregon 27, Northwestern 20.
  • 80% of simulations land between Northwestern by 13 and Oregon by 27.
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Side by side

NUORE
6-1Record4-3
34.7 35Points per game33.1 40
16.6 22Points allowed20.7 39
7.1 18Yards per play5.9 91
5.8 70Yards per play allowed5.5 52
+1.0 3Interception margin/game+0.5 24
4.9% 98Sacks per dropback6.0% 67
1756 22Elo rating1787 17

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 1 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2025-09-132025 Wk 3Oregon 34 @ Northwestern 14ORE

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)