ILL
MD
Illinois @ Maryland
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · SECU Stadium
Our pick
ILLIllinois Fighting Illini
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Illinois can win
- Elo rating: worth about 10.6 points to Illinois in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Illinois +1.7, Maryland -20.3.
- Simulation: Illinois win 6,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Elo rating: Illinois rank 55th (1580), Maryland 109th (1294) of 138 FBS teams.
- Point differential per game: Illinois rank 70th (+5.0), Maryland 110th (-5.0) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Illinois may not
- Home field: Maryland play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Upset odds: Maryland win 3,130 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Maryland rank 33rd (7.8%), Illinois 127th (3.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Interception margin per game: Maryland rank 71st (+0.0), Illinois 120th (-0.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Illinois lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ILL -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.4 |
| Win chance | ILL n/a · MD n/a | ILL 69% · MD 31% |
| Fair moneyline | ILL -219 · MD +219 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Maryland 23, Illinois 30.
- 80% of simulations land between Illinois by 28 and Maryland by 11.
Side by side
| ILL | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 30.3 58 | Points per game | 28.3 71 |
| 25.3 79 | Points allowed | 33.3 127 |
| 6.2 67 | Yards per play | 5.6 108 |
| 6.5 111 | Yards per play allowed | 6.4 101 |
| -0.6 120 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 71 |
| 3.5% 127 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 33 |
| 1580 55 | Elo rating | 1294 109 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | 2025 Wk 12 | Maryland 6 @ Illinois 24 | ILL |
| 2023-10-14 | 2023 Wk 7 | Illinois 27 @ Maryland 24 | ILL |
| 2021-09-18 | 2021 Wk 3 | Maryland 20 @ Illinois 17 | MD |
| 2018-10-27 | 2018 Wk 9 | Illinois 33 @ Maryland 63 | MD |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.