MINN
IU
Minnesota @ Indiana
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Our pick
IUIndiana Hoosiers
98% to win
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.
Advantages Why Indiana can win
- Elo rating: worth about 21.3 points to Indiana in our ratings.
- Simulation: Indiana win 9,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.1 points to Indiana in our ratings.
- Elo rating: Indiana rank 2nd (2076), Minnesota 82nd (1434) of 138 FBS teams.
- Point differential per game: Indiana rank 9th (+21.6), Minnesota 64th (+6.4) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Indiana may not
- Upset odds: Minnesota win 190 of 10,000 simulations (2%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.
- History: Minnesota won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Field goal percentage: Minnesota rank 1st (100.0%), Indiana 92nd (66.7%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Indiana rank 92nd of 138 in field goal percentage (66.7%).
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IU -29.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | MINN n/a · IU n/a | MINN 2% · IU 98% |
| Fair moneyline | MINN +5108 · IU -5108 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Indiana 37, Minnesota 7.
- 80% of simulations land between Indiana by 10 and Indiana by 48.
Side by side
| MINN | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 7-1 |
| 26.6 84 | Points per game | 33.6 38 |
| 20.1 34 | Points allowed | 12.0 2 |
| 5.5 115 | Yards per play | 6.8 25 |
| 5.2 24 | Yards per play allowed | 5.1 19 |
| +0.1 56 | Interception margin/game | +0.8 12 |
| 6.8% 54 | Sacks per dropback | 10.9% 3 |
| 1434 82 | Elo rating | 2076 2 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-20 | 2021 Wk 12 | Minnesota 35 @ Indiana 14 | MINN |
| 2018-10-27 | 2018 Wk 9 | Indiana 31 @ Minnesota 38 | MINN |
| 2013-11-02 | 2013 Wk 10 | Minnesota 42 @ Indiana 39 | MINN |
| 2008-10-04 | 2008 Wk 6 | Indiana 7 @ Minnesota 16 | MINN |
| 2007-10-06 | 2007 Wk 6 | Minnesota 20 @ Indiana 40 | IU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.