21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango
UVA

Virginia @ Wake Forest

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

WAKE
Our pick
WAKEWake Forest Demon Deacons
85% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Wake Forest can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 5.6 points to Wake Forest in our ratings.
  2. Simulation: Wake Forest win 8,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
  3. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Wake Forest +37.3, Virginia -3.3.
  4. Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 4.5 points to Wake Forest in our ratings.
  5. Home field: Wake Forest play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.

Disadvantages Why Wake Forest may not

  1. Upset odds: Virginia win 1,540 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
  2. Interception margin per game: Virginia rank 12th (+0.8), Wake Forest 56th (+0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Wake Forest lose by 4 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Wake Forest rank 95th of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.9%).
  5. Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetWAKE -14.8
Total pointsn/a49.5
Win chanceUVA n/a · WAKE n/aUVA 15% · WAKE 85%
Fair moneylineUVA +550 · WAKE -550

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: Wake Forest 31, Virginia 17.
  • 80% of simulations land between Virginia by 4 and Wake Forest by 36.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

UVAWAKE
4-4Record6-1
28.2 73Points per game37.4 14
19.6 32Points allowed19.4 30
6.0 81Yards per play7.8 5
5.3 33Yards per play allowed4.6 6
+0.8 12Interception margin/game+0.1 56
5.6% 74Sacks per dropback4.9% 95
1581 54Elo rating1766 20

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 5 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2025-11-092025 Wk 11Wake Forest 16 @ Virginia 9WAKE
2024-09-072024 Wk 2Virginia 31 @ Wake Forest 30UVA
2021-09-242021 Wk 4Wake Forest 37 @ Virginia 17WAKE
2020-10-172020 Wk 7Virginia 23 @ Wake Forest 40WAKE
2016-11-052016 Wk 10Virginia 20 @ Wake Forest 27WAKE

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)