MIA
UNC
Miami @ North Carolina
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Kenan Stadium
Our pick
MIAMiami Hurricanes
90% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Miami can win
- Elo rating: worth about 19.9 points to Miami in our ratings.
- Simulation: Miami win 8,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Miami +21.7, North Carolina +2.3.
- Point differential per game: Miami rank 1st (+33.7), North Carolina 79th (+3.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Elo rating: Miami rank 5th (2018), North Carolina 77th (1461) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Miami may not
- Home field: North Carolina play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Upset odds: North Carolina win 1,030 of 10,000 simulations (10%). A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Miami lose by 1 or more.
- History: North Carolina won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -18.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · UNC n/a | MIA 90% · UNC 10% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA -876 · UNC +876 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: North Carolina 14, Miami 34.
- 80% of simulations land between Miami by 40 and North Carolina by 1.
Side by side
| MIA | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | Record | 4-3 |
| 49.0 1 | Points per game | 24.4 96 |
| 15.3 11 | Points allowed | 20.9 40 |
| 8.0 3 | Yards per play | 5.9 90 |
| 5.4 47 | Yards per play allowed | 5.5 53 |
| +0.3 44 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 71 |
| 6.6% 60 | Sacks per dropback | 5.3% 84 |
| 2018 5 | Elo rating | 1461 77 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-14 | 2023 Wk 7 | Miami 31 @ North Carolina 41 | UNC |
| 2022-10-08 | 2022 Wk 6 | North Carolina 27 @ Miami 24 | UNC |
| 2021-10-16 | 2021 Wk 7 | Miami 42 @ North Carolina 45 | UNC |
| 2020-12-12 | 2020 Wk 15 | North Carolina 62 @ Miami 26 | UNC |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 2 | Miami 25 @ North Carolina 28 | UNC |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.