CLEM
FSU
Clemson @ Florida State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Doak Campbell Stadium
Our pick
FSUFlorida State Seminoles
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Florida State can win
- Simulation: Florida State win 6,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Florida State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Offense, yards per play: Florida State rank 42nd (6.5), Clemson 130th (5.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Elo rating: worth about 1.9 points to Florida State in our ratings.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Florida State rank 15th (5.7), Clemson 76th (4.2) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Florida State may not
- Upset odds: Clemson win 3,260 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Clemson's running game (5.1 yards, 74th in FBS) faces the Florida State defense, which ranks 129th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Florida State lose by 13 or more.
- History: Clemson won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Weak spot: Florida State rank 129th of 138 in run defense, yards per carry allowed (6.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | FSU -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.5 |
| Win chance | CLEM n/a · FSU n/a | CLEM 33% · FSU 67% |
| Fair moneyline | CLEM +207 · FSU -207 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Florida State 28, Clemson 21.
- 80% of simulations land between Clemson by 13 and Florida State by 28.
Side by side
| CLEM | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 21.4 111 | Points per game | 31.6 50 |
| 21.3 51 | Points allowed | 27.9 103 |
| 5.1 130 | Yards per play | 6.5 42 |
| 5.2 25 | Yards per play allowed | 7.0 123 |
| -0.5 115 | Interception margin/game | -0.6 120 |
| 10.7% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 37 |
| 1532 62 | Elo rating | 1609 48 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 11 | Florida State 10 @ Clemson 24 | CLEM |
| 2024-10-05 | 2024 Wk 6 | Clemson 29 @ Florida State 13 | CLEM |
| 2023-09-23 | 2023 Wk 4 | Florida State 31 @ Clemson 24 | FSU |
| 2022-10-15 | 2022 Wk 7 | Clemson 34 @ Florida State 28 | CLEM |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Wk 9 | Florida State 20 @ Clemson 30 | CLEM |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.