BC
DUKE
Boston College @ Duke
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Wallace Wade Stadium
Our pick
DUKEDuke Blue Devils
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Duke can win
- Elo rating: worth about 4.9 points to Duke in our ratings.
- Simulation: Duke win 7,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Duke rank 26th (+13.9), Boston College 89th (+0.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Home field: Duke play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Duke rank 4th (1.2%), Boston College 106th (7.4%) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Duke may not
- Upset odds: Boston College win 2,730 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Interception margin per game: Boston College rank 33rd (+0.4), Duke 85th (-0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Duke lose by 10 or more.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 0.7 points to Boston College in our ratings.
- Weak spot: Duke rank 102nd of 138 in passing, yards per dropback (6.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DUKE -8.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.1 |
| Win chance | BC n/a · DUKE n/a | BC 27% · DUKE 73% |
| Fair moneyline | BC +266 · DUKE -266 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Duke 30, Boston College 21.
- 80% of simulations land between Boston College by 10 and Duke by 30.
Side by side
| BC | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.4 96 | Points per game | 29.9 62 |
| 23.6 63 | Points allowed | 16.0 17 |
| 6.0 82 | Yards per play | 6.0 78 |
| 5.8 73 | Yards per play allowed | 5.8 72 |
| +0.4 33 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 85 |
| 8.7% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 23 |
| 1468 74 | Elo rating | 1633 40 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-04 | 2022 Wk 10 | Duke 38 @ Boston College 31 | DUKE |
| 2020-09-19 | 2020 Wk 3 | Boston College 26 @ Duke 6 | BC |
| 2015-10-03 | 2015 Wk 5 | Boston College 7 @ Duke 9 | DUKE |
| 2011-09-17 | 2011 Wk 3 | Duke 20 @ Boston College 19 | DUKE |
| 2010-11-13 | 2010 Wk 11 | Boston College 21 @ Duke 16 | BC |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.