CAL
NCSU
California @ NC State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Carter-Finley Stadium
Our pick
NCSUNC State Wolfpack
84% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why NC State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.1 points to NC State in our ratings.
- Simulation: NC State win 8,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, NC State -8.0, California -22.7.
- Home field: NC State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- NC State's running game (5.3 yards, 60th in FBS) faces the California defense, which ranks 130th against it.
Disadvantages Why NC State may not
- Upset odds: California win 1,560 of 10,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: California rank 61st (6.4%), NC State 121st (3.9%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, NC State lose by 4 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: California rank 25th (3.3%), NC State 75th (5.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: NC State rank 128th of 138 in defense, yards per play allowed (7.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NCSU -14.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.6 |
| Win chance | CAL n/a · NCSU n/a | CAL 16% · NCSU 84% |
| Fair moneyline | CAL +543 · NCSU -543 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NC State 34, California 17.
- 80% of simulations land between California by 4 and NC State by 35.
Side by side
| CAL | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.4 102 | Points per game | 32.3 46 |
| 31.6 119 | Points allowed | 28.1 105 |
| 5.2 129 | Yards per play | 6.0 77 |
| 7.2 131 | Yards per play allowed | 7.1 128 |
| -0.1 82 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 71 |
| 6.4% 61 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 121 |
| 1236 118 | Elo rating | 1465 75 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-19 | 2024 Wk 8 | NC State 24 @ California 23 | NCSU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.