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AZMango
UTAH

Utah @ Cincinnati

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Nippert Stadium

CIN
Our pick
UTAHUtah Utes
78% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Utah can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 13.3 points to Utah in our ratings.
  2. Utah's passing game (8.9 yards, 16th in FBS) faces the Cincinnati defense, which ranks 113th against it.
  3. Simulation: Utah win 7,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
  4. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Utah +9.3, Cincinnati -5.7.
  5. Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.9 points to Utah in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Utah may not

  1. Home field: Cincinnati play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
  2. Travel: Utah come about 2,328 km (1,445 miles) for this one.
  3. Upset odds: Cincinnati win 2,210 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Utah lose by 7 or more.
  5. Body clock: Utah cross 2 time zones.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUTAH -11.7
Total pointsn/a53.8
Win chanceUTAH n/a · CIN n/aUTAH 78% · CIN 22%
Fair moneylineUTAH -353 · CIN +353

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: Cincinnati 20, Utah 33.
  • 80% of simulations land between Utah by 33 and Cincinnati by 7.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

UTAHCIN
7-0Record5-2
37.4 14Points per game35.4 31
14.6 9Points allowed26.4 95
7.6 10Yards per play6.9 24
4.9 13Yards per play allowed6.6 112
+0.3 44Interception margin/game+0.6 19
4.3% 113Sacks per dropback6.0% 68
1896 10Elo rating1532 62

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 1 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2025-11-022025 Wk 10Cincinnati 14 @ Utah 45UTAH

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)