OKST
ISU
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Jack Trice Stadium
Our pick
ISUIowa State Cyclones
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Iowa State can win
- Home field: Iowa State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Simulation: Iowa State win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Elo rating: worth about 2.2 points to Iowa State in our ratings.
- Relative strength: Iowa State rank 51st of 138 in field goal percentage (80.0%).
- Relative strength: Iowa State rank 63rd of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (4.6).
Disadvantages Why Iowa State may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Oklahoma State +14.7, Iowa State -15.7.
- Oklahoma State's passing game (9.3 yards, 7th in FBS) faces the Iowa State defense, which ranks 87th against it.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.9 points to Oklahoma State in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Oklahoma State rank 18th (+16.3), Iowa State 83rd (+1.7) of 138 FBS teams.
- Upset odds: Oklahoma State win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ISU -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.6 |
| Win chance | OKST n/a · ISU n/a | OKST 41% · ISU 59% |
| Fair moneyline | OKST +142 · ISU -142 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Iowa State 27, Oklahoma State 24.
- 80% of simulations land between Oklahoma State by 17 and Iowa State by 24.
Side by side
| OKST | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 40.0 8 | Points per game | 25.9 90 |
| 23.7 64 | Points allowed | 24.1 69 |
| 7.7 6 | Yards per play | 6.0 88 |
| 5.7 69 | Yards per play allowed | 6.2 93 |
| +0.1 56 | Interception margin/game | -0.3 102 |
| 6.8% 51 | Sacks per dropback | 4.7% 102 |
| 1463 76 | Elo rating | 1551 60 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | 2025 Wk 14 | Iowa State 20 @ Oklahoma State 13 | ISU |
| 2023-09-23 | 2023 Wk 4 | Oklahoma State 27 @ Iowa State 34 | ISU |
| 2022-11-12 | 2022 Wk 11 | Iowa State 14 @ Oklahoma State 20 | OKST |
| 2021-10-23 | 2021 Wk 8 | Oklahoma State 21 @ Iowa State 24 | ISU |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 Wk 8 | Iowa State 21 @ Oklahoma State 24 | OKST |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.