BAY
UCF
Baylor @ UCF
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Our pick
UCFUCF Knights
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why UCF can win
- Home field: UCF play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Simulation: UCF win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.5 points to UCF in our ratings.
- Offense, yards per play: UCF rank 54th (6.4), Baylor 122nd (5.4) of 138 FBS teams.
- Travel: Baylor come about 1,565 km (972 miles) for this one.
Disadvantages Why UCF may not
- Elo rating: worth about 5.5 points to Baylor in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Baylor +8.0, UCF -5.3.
- Upset odds: Baylor win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Baylor rank 7th (10.4%), UCF 101st (4.8%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Baylor rank 24th (5.4), UCF 70th (4.3) of 138 FBS teams.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UCF -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 52 |
| Win chance | BAY n/a · UCF n/a | BAY 48% · UCF 52% |
| Fair moneyline | BAY +109 · UCF -109 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: UCF 27, Baylor 24.
- 80% of simulations land between Baylor by 19 and UCF by 21.
Side by side
| BAY | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 29.1 66 | Points per game | 32.7 45 |
| 16.1 19 | Points allowed | 23.0 58 |
| 5.4 122 | Yards per play | 6.4 54 |
| 5.3 30 | Yards per play allowed | 5.1 22 |
| +0.1 56 | Interception margin/game | +0.3 44 |
| 10.4% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 101 |
| 1614 45 | Elo rating | 1477 72 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | 2025 Wk 10 | UCF 3 @ Baylor 30 | BAY |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023 Wk 5 | Baylor 36 @ UCF 35 | BAY |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.