SC
OU
South Carolina @ Oklahoma
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Our pick
OUOklahoma Sooners
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Oklahoma can win
- Simulation: Oklahoma win 6,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Oklahoma play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: South Carolina come about 1,508 km (936 miles) for this one.
- Strength: Oklahoma rank 4th of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (10.9%).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Oklahoma rank 4th (10.9%), South Carolina 38th (7.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Oklahoma may not
- Upset odds: South Carolina win 3,720 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offense, yards per play: South Carolina rank 27th (6.8), Oklahoma 101st (5.8) of 138 FBS teams.
- Point differential per game: South Carolina rank 44th (+10.9), Oklahoma 75th (+3.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- South Carolina's running game (6.5 yards, 6th in FBS) faces the Oklahoma defense, which ranks 49th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Oklahoma lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OU -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | SC n/a · OU n/a | SC 37% · OU 63% |
| Fair moneyline | SC +169 · OU -169 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Oklahoma 26, South Carolina 21.
- 80% of simulations land between South Carolina by 14 and Oklahoma by 25.
Side by side
| SC | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 36.1 21 | Points per game | 21.6 110 |
| 25.3 79 | Points allowed | 17.7 24 |
| 6.8 27 | Yards per play | 5.8 101 |
| 5.5 50 | Yards per play allowed | 5.0 18 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 85 |
| 7.5% 38 | Sacks per dropback | 10.9% 4 |
| 1702 34 | Elo rating | 1719 27 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | 2025 Wk 8 | Oklahoma 26 @ South Carolina 7 | OU |
| 2024-10-19 | 2024 Wk 8 | South Carolina 35 @ Oklahoma 9 | SC |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.