AUB
MISS
Auburn @ Ole Miss
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Our pick
MISSOle Miss Rebels
84% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Ole Miss can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.9 points to Ole Miss in our ratings.
- Simulation: Ole Miss win 8,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Ole Miss +18.7, Auburn -9.3.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.5 points to Ole Miss in our ratings.
- Home field: Ole Miss play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
Disadvantages Why Ole Miss may not
- Upset odds: Auburn win 1,590 of 10,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Auburn's running game (5.8 yards, 29th in FBS) faces the Ole Miss defense, which ranks 66th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ole Miss lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Ole Miss rank 119th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (5.0).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Auburn rank 66th (6.1%), Ole Miss 99th (4.8%) of 138 FBS teams.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MISS -14.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.3 |
| Win chance | AUB n/a · MISS n/a | AUB 16% · MISS 84% |
| Fair moneyline | AUB +527 · MISS -527 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Ole Miss 34, Auburn 17.
- 80% of simulations land between Auburn by 4 and Ole Miss by 35.
Side by side
| AUB | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 25.4 93 | Points per game | 36.0 24 |
| 24.1 69 | Points allowed | 25.3 79 |
| 5.5 116 | Yards per play | 6.7 33 |
| 6.0 79 | Yards per play allowed | 5.7 64 |
| +0.1 56 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 71 |
| 6.1% 66 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 99 |
| 1669 37 | Elo rating | 1923 8 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-21 | 2023 Wk 8 | Ole Miss 28 @ Auburn 21 | MISS |
| 2022-10-15 | 2022 Wk 7 | Auburn 34 @ Ole Miss 48 | MISS |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Wk 9 | Ole Miss 20 @ Auburn 31 | AUB |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 Wk 8 | Auburn 35 @ Ole Miss 28 | AUB |
| 2019-11-02 | 2019 Wk 10 | Ole Miss 14 @ Auburn 20 | AUB |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.