MIZ
ARK
Missouri @ Arkansas
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Razorback Stadium
Our pick
MIZMissouri Tigers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Missouri can win
- Elo rating: worth about 8.8 points to Missouri in our ratings.
- Missouri's passing game (8.2 yards, 33rd in FBS) faces the Arkansas defense, which ranks 131st against it.
- Simulation: Missouri win 7,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Missouri rank 38th (+11.6), Arkansas 114th (-5.7) of 138 FBS teams.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Missouri +7.0, Arkansas -8.0.
Disadvantages Why Missouri may not
- Home field: Arkansas play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Upset odds: Arkansas win 2,880 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Missouri lose by 11 or more.
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
- Availability: college football has no league-wide injury report. The ACC and Big 12 post availability reports about 2 hours before kickoff; other conferences may not.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIZ -8.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.6 |
| Win chance | MIZ n/a · ARK n/a | MIZ 71% · ARK 29% |
| Fair moneyline | MIZ -248 · ARK +248 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Arkansas 20, Missouri 29.
- 80% of simulations land between Missouri by 29 and Arkansas by 11.
Side by side
| MIZ | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 31.1 54 | Points per game | 21.0 114 |
| 19.6 31 | Points allowed | 26.7 96 |
| 6.5 44 | Yards per play | 5.1 132 |
| 5.4 48 | Yards per play allowed | 6.9 121 |
| +0.6 19 | Interception margin/game | +0.1 56 |
| 7.1% 45 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 100 |
| 1747 24 | Elo rating | 1515 65 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | 2025 Wk 14 | Missouri 31 @ Arkansas 17 | MIZ |
| 2024-11-30 | 2024 Wk 14 | Arkansas 21 @ Missouri 28 | MIZ |
| 2023-11-24 | 2023 Wk 13 | Missouri 48 @ Arkansas 14 | MIZ |
| 2022-11-25 | 2022 Wk 13 | Arkansas 27 @ Missouri 29 | MIZ |
| 2021-11-26 | 2021 Wk 13 | Missouri 17 @ Arkansas 34 | ARK |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.